The polls have reversed course; McCain is now BEHIND Obama

As predicted, the national polls in the Presidential race have served their purpose. Immediately prior to "Super Tuesday," "the polls" told us that John McCain was THE Republican candidate that could beat either Democrat (Hillary or Obama). Rasmussen gave McCain a 6 point lead over Obama.

One week later, frightened Republican voters all but handed John McCain the Republican nomination, driving Mitt Romney from the race. Today, "the polls" tell us that Obama leads McCain by six (6) points.

The polls served their purpose. They drove Romney from the race. They pressured and misled Republican voters into supporting the "electable" John McCain because he would appeal to "moderates" and "independents." Mission accomplished. Now that McCain stands virtually alone in his race to wrap up the nomination, "the polls" can once again resume their function as self-fulfilling prophecies, boosting Obama with an early "lead" so that the "independents" and "undecideds" will know which direction to follow.

I predicted this outcome on January 31st. I did not foresee how rapidly the reversal would come. [While two different polling companies have provided these opposite poll results, I am sure those pollsters are as different as NBC News and ABC News.]

Any Republican who voted for McCain in a primary because he was more "electable" has been suckered.

Once again, do not believe the polls

Yesterday, another poll was released. This poll claimed that John McCain enjoys leads over both of the Democrat frontrunners.

Do not believe it. Polls showing this outcome will disappear as soon as John McCain wraps up the nomination. If that happens, instead of polls, we will begin hearing about the "Keating 5." Shortly thereafter, we will begin seeing polls that show John McCain is well behind Obama or Hillary. Don't let pollsters choose your nominee for you.

Remember chapter 6 from "A Choice Not An Echo."

McCain rescues Hillary - the New Hampshire results were predictable

On January 4th, I warned of the possibility that John McCain would rescue the Clintons by draining independent voters away from Obama, much as he rescued Al Gore in the 2000 New Hampshire primary by taking independents away from Bill Bradley.

The pre-primary polls did not reflect the possibility that independents could vote for either a Democrat or Republican. My own theory is that much of the vote that was expected to end up in Obama's column went to McCain. Independents were allowed to vote in either primary and were predicted to make up more than 40% of the New Hampshire vote.

As I wrote on Friday:

. . . Hillary may well sneak over the finish line in New Hampshire and avoid the calamity that a double loss would have brought her. McCain may win New Hampshire in his vain attempt to get the nomination, but a McCain victory will actually translate into a Hillary victory.

I refused to get too excited about Monday's headlines that predicted Hillary's exit partially because of the McCain factor and partially because those predictions of Hillary's demise were based somewhat on the word of John Edwards, who is incapable of telling the truth.

Years from now, as we lament the list of President Hillary's critics who suddenly find themselves subject to tax audits or political prosecutions, we can thank John McCain for keeping Hillary's White House hopes alive.

The second lesson of New Hampshire 2008 is - polls mean nothing. Never base your vote or your support upon a poll.

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More details of the vote here.
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update

The left blames the voting machines or something. At least they are not being hypocrites for trotting out the same theories they raised after recent Republican victories. The DNC leadership is being hypocritical for not supporting the leftists after yesterday's election mess. BTW, where is Al Gore? Why isn't he front and center with the lunatic left demanding a recount?

Catron speculates that Clinton supporters lied to the pollsters about supporting Obama for fear of seeming racist, only to vote for Hillary.

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Wednesday evening update -
Wuzzadem on polls.

Quote of the day - G.K. Chesterton

Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.

G. K. Chesterton

Anna Nicole Smith, Lew Burdette, Joshua Perper, Al Qaeda, Abu Ayyub al-Masri and MSM/DNC white noise

Did you know that Lew Burdette died this week? Do you know who Lew Burdette is? Lew Burdette was the MVP of the 1957 world series. He pitched 24 straight scoreless innings over the Yankees (the team with Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, etc.) in that series. He won three complete game victories. He was a teammate of Hank Aaron.








Yet his death was relegated to a brief mention in the sports pages or on Fox Sports Radio. There were no features or interviews with Hank Aaron or endless updates on his death with absolutely no new information. Can this be explained by the fact that he did not look like this - ?




I think there is more to it than mere looks. Anna Nicole Smith was famous for no good reason. She was the subject of an inheritance lawsuit, she appeared on reality television, she was the center of tragedy in recent months, she was involved in a paternity suit, etc. But these events are not that uncommon anymore. In a world where the vice-President's daughter can have a baby with another woman and be greeted with yawns, Anna Nicole's life was quite mundane. Yet I believe that is the reason for her fame. The media specializes in creating celebrity out of nothing.

What does Paris Hilton actually do? or Sean "Puffy" "P. Diddy" Combs? They do nothing as far as I can tell. They are famous merely because they are famous. They receive attention merely because they have already received attention. Their fame has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. They are the celebrity version of political polls.

When Princess Diana died, television commentators stumbled all over themselves around the clock for the next few days trying to think of something she actually did to merit all of the attention. For ten seconds they would list her work against land mines and in favor of AIDS victims. After that they had very little to say. Today, the commentators have stopped even trying to find some justification for the fame. Instead of trying to summarize why Anna Nicole Smith justifies all of the endless coverage, the MSM/DNC speculates as to which drugs may have been in her hotel room when she died. [The commentators have also tried to contrive a Marylin Monroe analogy, but that analogy is pitiful, as Monroe acted in many, many first run movies with A-list co-stars. Monroe's fame was based on her acting.]

A modern Rip Van Winkle, waking up after sleeping since the mid-1970's, upon hearing the news coverage of the past few days in which the MSM/DNC continuously used the deceased's middle name, might conclude that Anna Nicole Smith had assassinated the President or committed some other horrific crime like other three-named villains of the past.

The Anna Nicole Smith coverage is nothing but White Noise. See p. 171 of Hugh Hewitt's book "Blog" and #21 in the bias categories list for a fuller discussion of how the MSM/DNC uses "White Noise" to drown out important topics.

As an example of how successful this White Noise strategy has been, do you know who Abu Ayyub al-Masri is? Did you know that he is the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq and that U.S. and Iraqi forces have killed or captured numerous of his aides in the past few days. If you receive your news primarily from the MSM/DNC, you most likely are unaware of this fact. The
MSM/DNC does not want you to know that U.S. forces in Iraq are eliminating much of the group responsible for 9-11. Any story that reveals our success against Al-Qaeda in Iraq would undermine MSM/DNC efforts to generate public support for a U.S. retreat in the face of the enemy that destroyed part of New York City.

Here is another example of how MSM/DNC shallowness results in missed stories. In watching some of the coverage of the Anna Nicole Smith death, I was surprised to see Joshua Perper on television holding a press conference. I recall Perper's term as coroner in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, which term ended when he was replaced by Dr. Sanford Edberg. The two men got into a shoving match in front of TV cameras in 1980 as Edberg sought to assume his office. The sight of two coroners physically shoving each other for control of the coroner's office was, to say the least, interesting. It would make an interesting sidelight during the endless, monotonous Smith coverage for the MSM/DNC to resurrect and display that film. Yet the MSM/DNC misses that opportunity because the concept of "memory" is hostile to the mission of the MSM/DNC. MSM/DNC propaganda depends on the public forgetting what happened yesterday or last year or 27 years ago. Even though Dr. Perper's history in Pittsburgh has no real bearing on the Smith case, the MSM/DNC cannot break out of its anti-memory default mode even for the purpose of finding some historical film that would entertain its audience during this nonstop gabfest.

Here is a final analogy and a prediction. The MSM/DNC cannot continue to operate forever in this manner. Eventually, it will be successful in destroying western civilization (in which case the MSM/DNC will die also) or it will continue to lose power and market share to the new media and will eventually cease to exist. But if the MSM/DNC were to continue in power indefinitely despite its silliness and its strategy to distract attention from the vital issues affecting America's survival, our children will experience the following:

In 50 years or so, Peyton Manning will pass away. Like Lew Burdette, Manning's death will receive little coverage (despite his accomplishments in our own era).

In 30 years, a woman will be born - it does not matter who she is. By a combination of luck, looks, scandal and publicity stunts, she will eventually become famous despite having no actual career or accomplishments. Her exploits as a 20+ year old will eclipse the news coverage that Peyton Manning's death receives.
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Visit counter added on March 26, 2007

Which promises will Casey break?

The Harrisburg "Patriot"-News has reminded us of some of the promises that Robert Casey (and other Democrats) made to the voters during the election - and the impossibility of fulfilling these promises:

WASHINGTON - On the campaign trail, U.S. Sen.-elect Bob Casey Jr. and other Democrats called for fully funding the federal No Child Left Behind education program and increasing spending for veterans programs, and advocated the need to expand health insurance for all Americans, especially children.

"You're talking billions of dollars, at least," Casey said in October during the heat of his election fight with U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. "When I talk about health care for kids and health care for small business, and we talk about investments in education, all of these things, I think, are important investments."

Such promises proved popular with many voters but could come back to haunt lawmakers such as Casey as they grope with limited resources to implement proposals, keep supporters happy and keep spending in check.

"They're going to face some very difficult choices reconciling their rhetoric with the budget realities," predicted Tim Penny, a former Democratic congressman and deficit hawk from Minnesota.

It is inconceivable that the Democrats were not aware that they would never be able to keep their promises without increased deficit spending or tax increases. They simply didn't care. It is even more inconceivable that the MSM/DNC could not foresee this scenario one or two months ago. Instead of questioning what the Democrats would do and how they would do it, the MSM/DNC focused on polls and fulfilling its own role in securing the Democrats' victory. Now that it is too late for a meaningful discussion of the Democrats' promises, the MSM/DNC is free to discuss the full implications a little more deeply. Having seized power based on lies, it does little good simply to expose the false promises. It does little good for us to be right in hindsight. As I wrote last week, "being right in hindsight is not good enough."





Daddy never told me I would have to KEEP my promises

"The Polls"; the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy.

I have written before about how I hate polls. I repeat my opposition to polls here. I do this even as the Republicans supposedly enjoy an upswing in "the polls" that threatens to wipe out Democratic leads in the final day of the 2006 campaign.

As I wrote in April 2005, Polls serve the MSM/DNC as self-fulfilling prophesies:

4. Polls. An offshoot of ventriloquist journalism is the MSM/DNC's reliance upon polls. The polls that the MSM/DNC uses are either (1) unreliable or blatantly false and/or (2) self-fulfilling prophecies. It is a common tendency among humans (especially those who have been softened by 70 years of the welfare state) to want to be on the winning side. When the MSM/DNC releases its polls showing some Democrat with a lead or that the "public" thinks that Social Security is just fine, those who might otherwise harbor doubts are intimidated into going along with the majority. I am sure that the MSM/DNC will continue their efforts to bully the public into acquiescing in the status quo on social security with just this tactic.

We all know the extent to which exit polls were wildly wrong on election day 2004. Expect that same tactic this (and every) year.

Polls have destroyed the entire meaning of elections in recent years. We no longer seek information about the candidate or his beliefs. Instead, we seek to learn who is leading in "the polls". We support, work for, contribute to and even vote for candidates based on their "electability."

MSM/DNC broadcasts spend as much time talking about who is "ahead" in "the polls" as they do talking about issues. The key to victory for any candidate seems to be the ability to claim an early lead in "the polls" so that opponents will forever be hampered by the image of having to "come from behind."

In local elections, I have often heard acquaintances discuss candidates in terms of whether "he can win." These acquaintances will often distance themselves from a local candidate when it appears that the candidate is not in the lead. This is true even when that candidate agrees on the issues with those who keep their distance for fear of backing a losing candidate.

MSM/DNC broadcasts discuss any issue in terms of how it will affect "the polls" instead of how it will affect the nation and its future.

It is as if our country, its economy, our culture and our political processes exist to serve "the polls." The polls have become an end in and of themselves.

If polls were not so powerful as self-fulfilling prophecies, the MSM/DNC would not use them as weapons on a regular basis.

This fixation on polls also gives the impression that elections affect only the candidates themselves, like a sporting event, instead of the nation as a whole. Success or failure in Iraq, for example, is examined only insofar as it may help or hurt President Bush - as if President Bush is the only one who has a stake in the outcome. Very rarely does any MSM/DNC outlet mention the danger to America if terrorists are allowed to conquer Iraq. Five years after 9-11, terrorism is quickly being added to the list of items that can affect only "the polls."

"The polls" have attained status as an ancient oracle or even a temple that we humans must appease and before which we must bow. All considerations of philosophy, ethics and ideology must take a back seat, lest we upset "the polls." In exchange for this appeasement, "the polls" will give us guidance and will even smite our enemies with bad poll numbers, thus inhibiting their fundraising efforts and driving away their volunteers, supporters and voters.

Elections have become little more than sporting events. When we pick our candidate, we are doing the equivalent of gambling on a sports team. Just as we only gamble on the teams we expect to win, we only vote for the candidate that we think will get the most votes. Even the pretense of discussing issues is becoming unnecessary.

The whole point of elections in the 21st century is for the candidate to spend a year or more (plus his entire incumbency if he is lucky enough to win) convincing voters that he will get the most votes on the next election day.

It seems absurd and pointless when we say it this way, but perhaps this is what it will take to break the stranglehold that polls seem to have on our election process. Only when we identify what we are doing (only when we actually say that the emporer has no clothes), does the absurdity of the process become apparent. If the blogosphere can bring down such giants as CBS, Reuters, USAToday, CNN, AP, etc., we ought to be able to discredit the entire concept of polling. Otherwise, we will be forever condemned to joining the charade in which we spend every day doing nothing more than predicting the outcome of an event that takes place one day a year.

Quote of the day - Mark Steyn

According to The Times, at his [Saddam Hussein's] last Presidential election seven years ago, the old butcher got 99.89% of the votes. As the 0.11% foolish enough to write in Pat Buchanan have since been killed, you'd have thought Saddam would do even better this time. But who knows? Perhaps there's a Zogby poll with him plummeting to 99.83%. Perhaps Dick Morris has some internal numbers showing Iraqi soccer moms want more spending on education and less on anthrax.

Mark Steyn - October 13, 2002

Quote of the day - Ann Coulter

If I were a Democrat, I wouldn't have an opinion on this [the favorite Presidential candidate for 2008]. I'd wait until one candidate emerged from the pack as a front-runner, then pretend I'd been supporting that candidate all along, like the sniveling, gutless little America-hater I would be if I were a Democrat.

Ann Coulter

The Culture of Ventriloquism; L.A. Times; Michael Hiltzik; Patterico

Big thumbs up to Patterico for exposing yet another example of ventriloquist journalism.

For those who have not read the story, here is Patterico's summary:

Is an L.A. Times columnist leaving comments on the Internet under assumed “sock puppet” identities — identities which he pretends is someone other than himself?

Read on and judge for yourself. As for me, I’ve made up my mind, and the answer is “yes.”

Read Patterico's post for the details.



Based on the updates to Patterico's post, either more than one L.A. Times' employee has been doing this, or Michael Hiltzik continues to do this even after his suspension.

The Washington Post and Wuzzadem weigh in also.

I have not maintained a list of MSM/DNC lies this year as I did in 2005, but this episode certainly qualifies. As the fictional character was quoted as saying in that post,

we can't be sure of anything we do . . . anything we see.

The Times' columnist's use of alter egos to convey propoganda is standard operating procedure for the MSM/DNC.

Here is entry # 3 from the bias category list:

3. Ventriloquist journalism. A common tactic of the MSM/DNC is to get others to do its dirty work. Let it appear as if someone else is doing the talking so that "media bias" won't be so obvious. [Update] MSM/DNC often uses phrases like "critics say" "some say" "experts say" "sources have told CBS news" . . . .

A previous example of ventriloquist journalism from December 2004 and related commentary:

A good ventriloquist will never let you see his mouth move. But the MSM's ventriloquist act gets more obvious every day.

Usually, ventriloquist journalism takes the form of vague references to "widespread assumptions," "popular beliefs" and "generally recognized" facts:

But as far as good old fashioned MSM/DNC propaganda is concerned, nothing beats Reuters' subtle ventriloquist journalism and well poisoning technique:

Ratzinger, the strict defender of Catholic orthodoxy for the past 23 years, was elected Pope on Tuesday despite a widespread assumption he was too old and divisive to win election.

Ventriloquist journalism is category # 3 on the bias list. Referring to a "widespread assumption" is an MSM/DNC commonly used technique that allows MSM/DNC to hide behind unnamed "others" as it spreads its propaganda.

emphasis added

That story, from April 2005, reveals the ease to which the MSM/DNC attributes its own biases and venom to the general public. In this atmosphere of widespread ventriloquism, it was too easy for Michael Hiltzik to make the transition from reliance on invented "widespread assumptions" to posting comments on others' blogs under assumed identities.

And don't forget ventriloquism's twin, the poll:

4. Polls. An offshoot of ventriloquist journalism is the MSM/DNC's reliance upon polls. The polls that the MSM/DNC uses are either (1) unreliable or blatantly false and/or (2) self-fulfilling prophecies. It is a common tendency among humans (especially those who have been softened by 70 years of the welfare state) to want to be on the winning side. When the MSM/DNC releases its polls showing some Democrat with a lead or that the "public" thinks that Social Security is just fine, those who might otherwise harbor doubts are intimidated into going along with the majority. I am sure that the MSM/DNC will continue their efforts to bully the public into acquiescing in the status quo on social security with just this tactic.

[Also - I hate polls.]

I think it is incorrect for bloggers to focus mainly on Michael Hiltzik. The fault lies in the culture of ventriloquism that pervades the MSM/DNC. If the MSM/DNC expressed its opinions in its own name instead of hiding behind contrived polls or vox populi, it never would have obtained the power that now slips further away with each passing day. We can hardly blame individual employees when they follow the pattern set by the establishment for which they toil.

Quote of the day - Michael Crichton

"Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled."

Michael Crichton

I hate polls; MSM/DNC lie # 2 of 2006

Hat tip to Blonde Sagacity for pointing out a new poll showing Republican Lynn Swann leading Democrat Ed Rendell in the race for Pennsylvania governor.

Swann's lead is small, but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette somehow has reversed the results, giving Rendell the lead.

Two days after the initial article appeared, the "mistake" has not been corrected.

I have always stated that I hate polls.

Check out item #4 from the bias category list:

4. Polls. An offshoot of ventriloquist journalism is the MSM/DNC's reliance upon polls. The polls that the MSM/DNC uses are either (1) unreliable or blatantly false and/or (2) self-fulfilling prophecies. It is a common tendency among humans (especially those who have been softened by 70 years of the welfare state) to want to be on the winning side. When the MSM/DNC releases its polls showing some Democrat with a lead or that the "public" thinks that Social Security is just fine, those who might otherwise harbor doubts are intimidated into going along with the majority. I am sure that the MSM/DNC will continue their efforts to bully the public into acquiescing in the status quo on social security with just this tactic.

When you hear of polls, always remember the exit poll fiasco of November 2004. We can expect more dishonest exit polls this year.

Polls should not matter to us, as our decisions are determined by economics, history, culture and other substantive issues. The left's decisions are determined partially by the bandwagon effect, of which polls play a major role.
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update - New link for Rasmussen poll

The RoP rampages; MSM/DNC fixated on polls

The following events failed to get the attention of the MSM/DNC for the past few days:

1) Muslim leaders in Australia openly preach terror:

MUSLIM clerics in Sydney and Melbourne - led by radicals Sheik Mohammed Omran and Sheik Abdul Salam Mohammed Zoud - are still preaching hatred against the West, urging followers in Arabic to resist peace and support insurgents waging war against Australian soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.

H/T LGF

2) The Islamic Society of Boston has filed suit against various public figures for the purpose of silencing critics of terror. H/T LGF.

3) Islamic rioters rampage in Denmark, set fire to a nursery and other buildings and businesses.

4) The Paris riots have continued for eight days in a row, and appear to be well organized. H/T LGF.

5) One of the Madrid bombers (from 3/11) has been arrested in Pakistan after hiding in Venezuela.

6) The Canadians have arrested an Algerian terror cell, including an Al Qaeda-bomb maker.

And what was the Today Show's top headline this morning? The latest poll results regarding President Bush.

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Michelle Malkin posts an excellent roundup of the blogosphere Paris coverage:

The blogosphere has the best ongoing coverage, commentary, and analysis of the Muslim immigrant gang violence (otherwise known in the politically correct MSM as the "Paris unrest") . . . .

She quotes at length from this post at Brussels Journal:

If you want to know what is the matter with those that are described by the mainstream media as rioting “youths,” read Theodore Dalrymple’s poignant analysis in the latest issue of City Journal. We are just witnessing the beginning of Europe’s problems: “The sweet dream of universal cultural compatibility has been replaced by the nightmare of permanent conflict.”

Our mainstream media, in attempts to preserve the Left’s chimera of “universal cultural compatibility,” hardly write about all this. Nevertheless, for some years now West European city folk and police officers have been familiar with the reality that certain areas of major European cities are no-go areas, especially at night and certainly if you are white or wearing a uniform. Three years ago, a French friend who had his car stolen learned that the thieves had parked the car in a particular suburb. When he went to the police he was told that the police did not operate in that neighbourhood and consequently would not be able to retrieve his car. This is Western Europe in the early 21st century.

emphasis added

Brussels Journal cites examples from Sweden, Denmark, France and Brussels of how the authorities have lost control of certain portions of major European cities.

By ignoring these trends, the MSM/DNC hopes to make this scenario a reality in the United States.